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amg's Studies &
Commentary Ana Maria Gallo  |
Special Announcement from AMG
After over three years and 1000+ days of continuous updates, 'amg's Studies and
Commentary' is going offline as of Sunday evening, 14 March. The very best part
of posting my charts here for readers and users of stockcharts.com has been the
wonderful feedback from visitors, who have come from all over the world and
ranged from hedge fund managers to discretionary traders to young folks just
learning analysis. My warm appreciation to Chip Anderson who continues to
improve an already amazing product, and to all who have sent notes of
appreciation and encouragement. Thanks for visiting and the very best to you in
your trading and investing!
What a week it has been! Loads of technical carnage, signaling at best a robust
consolidation and at worst a shift towards an even stronger decline. I'll go
with the former (ed: was later, shame on me) as there is evidence of sufficient
oversoldness for a bounce. I was looking for a touch of 1096, may still come
Monday, but there is anxiety for a bounce. So that, then retest low before a
stronger rally, ie, a W (double bottom) on the daily? Do look at the last chart:
Price Relative VIX, which I now include on the daily chart. It has proved one of
the most interesting observations. Note too that small caps have remained
buoyant, a sign of lack of real fear.
Archives irregular commentary at
http://themysterybox.com/amg/notesblog.html. Here are some
background notes to the 'amg's Studies and
Commentary'.
The following charts are presented as an archive of the last day of posts. Last year I migrated the bulk of my charting to Ensign Software. Even though I no longer post a public list, I continue to use stockcharts.com for a wide variety of scanning, "candle-glance" of comparable stocks, and SCC's wonderful "Perf" tool that allows one to compare performance of a group of stocks, indices, or ETFs. Once the beta phase is complete, the next generation SCC package will include CandleVolume, what Dick Arms calls EquiVolume and an excellent adjunct for reading price action.
| 1b - SPX Weekly |
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| 1c - SPX Monthly |
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| There are three ideas on this chart:
(1) There is a potential Negative Reversal in work, but only if January closes below 1148 (not looking very likely at this writing on 20 Jan) (2) Price has jumped the bisect of the large bisect (the dashed blue line), a strong indication, but price must hold above 1122. (3) If price holds above 1122, and optimally above 1148, 1172 is the next target, which is just now the same as the 'hyper' green fork median line. (note: 24Jan : I changed the colors, but not the targets, numbers) |
| 1d- SPX Monthly |
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| 5 NDX Weekly |
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| Return of the Market Bad Boy. OK, OK, I 'should' be less emotive about this index; it does, in many ways, reflect progress and 'the future'. I wager most would admit each index has a 'character', which can be said to embody its participants. However, as a result of index recharacterizations, there are solid tech companies in all the major indices. However, the NDX retains its 'OTC' roots and remains highly speculative-- and therefore subject to greater volatility. In other words, it is NEVER the place where one takes 'flight to safety'. After an 18 month absence, I've decided to once again study this willful beast. |
Go to Page 3: EWJ, VIX, Miscellaneous Studies |