:: actio-et-reactio ::
amg's market charts and blather
The air is prickly with portents! Aside from the vegetable soup of economic reports on Wednesday, the odds favor squeeking out one more run at a high. vtoreport has long kept seasonality reports (check back in as they may not be up just now) and only second to the last day of the year, indicates the day after Thanksgiving has the highest odds for being an up day. Couple that with the "Turn of month buying spree" and the peak in the moon gains odds... you'd start thinking back up the truck! But wait...
When there is so much good, the odds are the rally is on its last legs. Time to say sayonara.
135m chart ES ::: Daily SPX ::: 65m SPX ::: Weekly SPX
A reminder of statistical odds. Today the New Moon is in Sagittarius and is conjoined with a total solar eclipse, which is best viewed from Antarctica, a place not likely on the media frenzy agenda. In simple terms, lunar odds favor a net rise into the next 4-5 days.
Nothing particularly new to add: the Positive RSI Reversals on the 65m and Daily charts remain in effect and are, to the extent there are now actual upturns in the indicator, strengthened. The charts below have been updated with today's candles. Click to open in a new window: Daily ::: 65m
This suggests a low-volume rally next week, which is to be sold.
The intraday price action was very turbulent today, and somewhat hidden by the Daily and 65m price charts, shown below updated with today's candles. I anticipated up action, but I didn't anticipate a close past a critical low as it did.
I am less bullish at this point, but speaking purely technically (*), there are STILL potential positive reversal indications. This very vexing rsi positive reversal is still in play, or perhaps better said, not dead. A reversal on the 65m keeps it in play and break of SPX 1018 on daily kills it.
This price congetion in the .382-.707 fib zone is best seen on the 135m ES chart, where prior gaps are indicated. Interesting stuff. There are also good "gap lessons" to be learned by studying this NDX 2001 gap classic.
(*) I say purely technically because there is a gut sense of further price erosion.
Positive RSI Reversal on Daily-- may be a dead cat, but "should" go up tomorrow. Note there is also a negative divergence in play (typical during congestions). Price is weakening and on the verge of outright done, but not quite:
Positive RSI Divergence on the 65m, with only a little room to run as there is also a concurrent Negative RSI Reversal being built (price would have to best the last swing high to negate it). While the daily is weakening, this one is already working against resistance:
I do like this time frame. From yesterday
The typical move now would be to breifly retest the bisect area(~1051) before heading for the lower median line (~1043), where there is also The Gap. Having already tested the upper boundry twice before, the gap may well act as an air pocket sucking price clean out of the consolidation range.
For tomorrow, a move to 1045.75, which if broken strongly targets the yellow bisect, then the "trigger line" , otherwise mo' down.
In yesterday's 135m post I alluded to the grey fork "trigger line" (shown above) and how price sometimes meanders in the zone created between it and the adjacent median line. Here is another less confusing example of such price action.
It was one of those freaky web things...searching for one thing I found another-- a cache of
-- It is better to have a permanent income than to be fascinating.
- ON THE SPOOZ
-- Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes-- Of course America had often been discovered before Columbus, but it had always been hushed up.
- ON REMOTE VIEWING, CONSPIRACIES, ETC
-- I can believe anything as long as it is incredible.
-- We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.-- It is very vulgar to talk about one's business. Only people like stockbrokers do that, and then merely at dinner parties.
- ON THE STOCK MARKET
-- One should always play fairly when one has the winning cards.
Have a good weekend!
This mornings price had me snorting and huffing as it crossed the 1061 resistance and headed for the 1.27 extension of the prior reversal. Alas, it deflated and left a spike through the upper median line, which was a short signal.
I got hosed day-trading the next bar off a 15m chart, lol and called it an early day. However the afternoon closing bar cut right through that yellow bisect, indicating a continuation of the pullback.
The typical move now would be to breifly retest the bisect area(~1051) before heading for the lower median line (~1043), where there is also The Gap. Having already tested the upper boundry twice before, the gap may well act as an air pocket sucking price clean out of the consolidation range. I've sketched in AB=CD extensions, which also coincide neatly with the gap. This is a HIGHLY geometrical chart. I really ought to see if there is a tradeable time symmetry there.....
It was a friendly chart for the last week, but it may turn on me next week. Fate and the market are fickle that way.
PS-- An interesting "case study" for bisect traders is the so-called "trigger line" (Mikula calls it that in his book), or what Andrews called a "warning line", in this case that faint grey "trendline", which is really an extension of the P1-P2 line. Each bar with a tail outside the line managed to close within that line. A close outside of it would have been a bisect failure. One thing that often happens is that price then trades inside that little area created by the trigger and the upper median line. That is less likely in this case due to the aggressive closing bar.
click chart to enlarge in separate window
Here's where the ES closed. I greyed out the former red down bisect and the older blue bisect is now back in play. Price touched the prior-red now gray 'warning' line (or 'trigger' line as Mikula calls it), as well as the upper yellow, both of which are resistance. The Negative Reversal may have played itself out, and there is still a downtrend line on RSI to break to confirm more of the bullish case.
In short, not all out snortin' and huffin' bullish, but no outright sell. Support @ 1053-1055.5, resistance 1060.5-1061.5 and da moon! hee hee
This is a close up of yesterday's chart, showing today's price action. The "clue to the continued price action was the strong bar through the 25% (1/4) median. There was also good support from the gap, trendline, and Fibonacci as mentioned yesterday.
Note that the close up YELLOW fork is yesterday's gray fork. Today I added the "hyper" lime-green fork. In case you don't see it, also note the "retest" mini-double-bottom, which forms the pivots for the hyper fork. After a fitfull start, price climbed steadily, stopping just shy of the upper median line.
Now what? I've drawn in a potential Fibonacci retrace to get an idea of a likely retrace, but may have to up the ending point tomorrow. I speculate an challenge of the prior hi at 1061.5, which could come in the form of a small triangle. 1061 is also the upper median. This move was pretty feverish, so a consolidation to 1053 or at worst 1049, wouldn't be a surprise. Anything greater spells a reversal.
Pullback catalysts could be bad news-- or negative reaction to just so-so news. On tap for economic news for this week: Jobless claims Thurs; Greenspan, Retail sales, Industrial Production, and Consumer Sentiment Friday. 
This chart has all sorts of bells and whistles. Main features:
This is weak to me, but not catacylsmically so. For tomorrow, it looks like at least a move to the dashed gray line (the "congestion fork").
A break of the upper yellow median line would target 1052ish.
A strong break of the lower grey median line would push price into that gap zone, where there will be support at 1035ish.
(click image to enlarge in a new window)
My StockCharts.com charts
Support at 1042.5. The bullish outcome is weakened, but not dead...yet. However, a strong move below 1042.5 does crimp the likelihood of moving back to the 1060 area and opens 1028-1032 and 1011-1015.
Look at the small cap ratio charts (middle of page). The Growth/Value ratio chart is barely turning up. This ratio has been a harbinger of broader market direction. It is presently forecasting a minor pullback.
1 Nov: Bullish outcome targets 1050, 1065, and 1106 (on *monthly*, change from 1138).
For traders using geometry (bisects, Fibonacci, patterns), there are some days that come together just right. Today was one of them. This piece focuses only on the moves after the opening flush. Click here to open the chart in another window (easier to follow the comments)
The chart below is a 1000-Tick chart. I actually trade off a 400T or 550T chart using a 150T or 266T chart as a finer vernier. However, I couldn't make the 550T chart "small" enough and used the "Lock Studies" feature in Ensign to leave my studies from the 550T chart on the 1000T chart. Pretty nifty.
The colorful band at the between the price & indicator pane are equal-hour bands. Tick volume is not constant in time and this band gives some insight into trade volume. Short bars mean very little trade volume (more risk) whereas longer bars indicate good liquidity.
Bisects: [1] There was an early "yellow" bisect that let me know when the trend changed, confluent with a tradeable RSI divergence.
The blue bisect was drawn in at the 13:55 reversal. Remarkably, this bisect would prove useful for the remainder of the session.
Fibonacci: [2] The reversal at the low allowed me to sketch in possible Fibonacci retracements from the fall off the morning high, which I use to aid me judge the strength or weakness of price moves.
[3] The first move off the low to the .382, where it reversed, allowed me to sketch in a smaller Fibonacci retrace of *that* move, which along with rising RSI/MACD indicated a low risk long entry.
Patterns: The Low, and next two reversals, allowed sketching in the first AB=CD [4], which reversed just shy of its 1.0 target (1048.75), which itself was a confluence with the 50% large Fib, and the 25% inner parallel of the blue fork. Not exact (the angle of ascent was also a tad too sharp), but coupled with a negative RSI, a good pullback signal.
Not shown (there are already too many lines) is another mini-Fib of the short leg, which showed a 50% pullback, confluent with the .786 level of the prior leg.
I don't pyramid my intraday trading, but this reversal was a low risk long for another trade, and the place to add the second AB=CD pattern [5], which was confluent with a spike touch of the lower ML.
This was the most exciting move of the day, moving very rapidly, and consolidating just above the AB=CD target, within a quarter point of the big 61.8% Fib. While still strong, intraday for me is more about getting the meat of a move and not drinking the last drop out of the bottle (lol). That was my last trade today.
However, for real party goers, the Positive RSI Reversal (aka "hidden" divergence) [6], along with a WILD EPREM move signalled the end of day fireworks, engendered by the anticipaton of the CSCO earnings report after the 4pm bell.
All in all, one of the few days where so much comes together. A day to savor but to not "expect" again as in my experience, it doesn't happen this way that often!
By the way, the lines were (1) cleaned up a bit (eg, took out the extraneous Fib targets that weren't touched) (2) not as confusing when trading in real time as the chart is larger and the old stuff "falls off".
|
moon phases |
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
slow majesty
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows
blather: nonsensical talk.
At times my analysis log, at times sharing what I've learned. Always my own work and views.
Content: amg
Basis: glish & bluerobot
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