:: actio-et-reactio ::
amg's market charts and blather
All my charts: Weekend: Outlook not much changed. Looking for deadcat to 1015-1023 as part of complex topping, which is still favored. A shallow correction to ~ 984 (-3.1% relative to 1015) , with 964 (-5.1%) to 948 (-6.6%, last swing high) possible if it gains momentum. I consider these somewhat shallow given what is IMO a still pricey market. The last swing low is @ 913 (-10%).
chart
Complex topping still favored, but more up (after a shallow correction to ~ 984) isn't out of the equation. A deep pullback is 954.
phfft! Meaning, another RSI neg diverge stick on the fire, and now what? phfft, beats me!
I will say this, there is what might be called a marginal RSI positive reveral,** but with the neg divergence, it 'shouldn't' play out, and thus I choose to not use it. Price will tell us the truth!
**An RSI Positive Reversal is when RSI bottoms make lower lows while price bottoms make higher highs. In this case, RSI is about the same, rather than lower (the blue dashed line), thus my call of "marginal". It could mean "complex topping".
amg's charts Looking for 953 on SPX, with confirming indications on daily & weekly: SPX RSI neg divergence, fork/prior hi/MM supt confluence, existing negative divergence CMF on daily (but still strong on weekly. The spike touch of the primary daily green fork looks to be playing itself out. (Daily chart below)
This is Options Expiration week, so narrowing volatility will make for some drama. Still favoring a complex topping, not an avalanche correction.
This SPX/VIX study came about because VIX wasn't on its own consistent enough to follow the 'VIX is low, time to go; VIX is high, time to buy' thing. I noticed a few things:
StockCharts.com - amg's Charts
I'm concerned the spike touch of the primary daily green fork may be signalling a 'significant' pullback. There are now various supports, putting a brake on the move, in particular, the new lower trendline (lime green now at 943).
I've favored a complex topping, but even that scenario may not result in an avalanche correction, esp. with layers of support now having been constructed. It may become simply a traders market, at least through the summer.
chart
My daily chart highlights the 'overbot' RSI in green, not red, not yellow.
RSI is not a 'pure' oscillator. It forms channels, which I've shown before, and can stay over/under BOT for extended periods. There is little to say it won't stay overbot 'this time', at least for a few days.
Mind you, a pullback isn't out of the question. There is a new lower trendline (lime green now at 930). I've favored a complex topping, but even this scenario may not result in an avalanche correction, esp. with layers of support now having been constructed. It may become simply a traders market, at least through the summer.
Been visiting Tampa, Florida for the past week. It was a warm and sunny treat from the much cooler NW). The neighborhoods were so diverse, it defies a single handle, much like trading styles.
And on to the market. I did think it would be too much to expect a full back-kiss of the lower trendline, but that is indeed what happened. Not only that, but price managed to wash past the 984 waterline, putting 1000 in view (or 1000-1009 as on the weekly and monthly charts) . See updated daily chart in May 20th post below.
The questions remain
(1) How much of a rebound -- rebound, what rebound? Still in the energizer bunnie zone until it stops. There is a new lower trendline (lime green now at 937 that will act as support on a pullback.
(2)how much repair is needed... a moot point for now. Still believe it is a complex topping rather base for a Super Bull.
|
moon phases |
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
slow majesty
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows
blather: nonsensical talk.
At times my analysis log, at times sharing what I've learned. Always my own work and views.
Content: amg
Basis: glish & bluerobot
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