:: actio-et-reactio ::
amg's market charts and blather
This explains itself.
The market is shredding not only accounts but confidence.
You are following your plan, you are focussed on your set-up, and are in good cheer. You put on the trade, but things don't go your way. In my case, it seems to be more than often enough, taking the trade and getting stopped out one bar before "it" goes to plan. Booking a small loss, I then watch what would have been a sizeable gain unfold, without me holding a ticket.
Long before I started trading, I learned the value of learning from a mistake and improving "the process". So, with patience at hand, I'll go back to the chart and and look for what went wrong. But sometimes the chart isn't really "wrong", nor was the interpretation. Sometimes it really is something "inside" that interfered. I feel then that I, of all people, "should" know that. But we aren't simply humans, we are students, for life! All things considered, I like that. So what does a student do? They study.
I highly recommend Mark Douglas' book, Trading in the Zone. For those willing to acknowledge that thoughts do shape our actions and lives, the book presents practical methods to get out of the trenches of timidity, sloth, and cynicism and into the reality of confidence, discipline, and a winning attitude.
I had fun making this "mantra" and printed it on a little card to place in front of me as a reminder to focus on what is right, even when things don't go "my" way.
Close: The intraday reversal wiped out the bearish drop handily, and left in its wake a bullish candle bounce off the large daily fork: this is a position buy. With good follow-through, there is also a positive divergence on the short-period RSI-7. There is still risk in this market, so a tight leash is warranted, esp. as 15m chart is quite overheated & looking for a pullback. Overhead resistance will be a challenge (See daily chart). What was support during the 'congestion trap' becomes resistance. If it proves tough, yet another congestion trap could ensue. But that is purely speculation at this point. Let's see what price brings.
Earlier: Dropped another support level tier on the 15m based on the recent price range [but the reversal re-engaged the prior range]. Price is in the reversal range of the daily large fork, but a strong close (ie, not a red bar) is desired for a 'longer term' play [got this], meaning a rebound here is likely but look for divergence [so far, got this too w/RSI7] or follow-through for a position play.
I modified the support levels on the 15m and 60m charts based on the recent price range. 808.75, which is 78.6% retrace of the October to December rally, is proving to be a tough nut to crack. Not surprisingly, it is also the balance point on the 15m chart.
Not a time for heroics, so will be watching for resolution of this partic. test of support (812-796) .
The 'Triangle target' on the 60m projected two target ranges: one from the start of the move and one from the break-down point. The first target was met and price bounced at the Feb 25th low and consolidated. Today's action completed the move. I think that particular "campaign" is over and something new will now be built.
That said, firmly breaking 809ish, partic. on the daily, opens the door to all sorts of bearishness across all time frames. This may not happen in one day, but it is clear lows are in the sights just now.
Added the daily chart of EWJ to watch the drama of that range resolve itself. 
click for full size
Today was one of those mystical days: 03-03-03, or if you like 3-3-3, likened by a few to 01/01/01 or 02/02/02. It was also the new moon and New Year on a few calendars. Well, it is half over and nothing of major import that I know of has served to mark it in my memory as a day holding more than usual interest.
from my SCC comments today
The 15m chart reflects my on-going comments/annotations from the day session. Mixed signals with critical support in jeopardy (828 (60m) - 812.5 (Daily) in sight). The Flags-R-Us trade broke up in the AM only to quickly disappoint (ie, head fake!). As we said, 'Plenty of flag waving and little to show for it. This indecisive action isn't partic. bullish IMO, but that doesn't erase the ongoing potential for a sudden move higher, which given this climate, is likely to be sold anyway.'
The 'Triangle targets' on the 60m are experimental as it isn't a partic. 'clean' pattern IMO to measure, but they may be of use.
Of interest: There is a mild bullish bias if the Small Cap Value:Growth chart is a harbinger. The week has only just begun & a move back up is still possible. Wait for the market to confirm it so.
Sunday, March 02, 2003
New Moon - 3 March 2003
A reminder about market statistical odds relative to the moon. The new moon is associated with the relatively highest market gains ion the lunar monthly cycle. The new moon (~day 14 on this chart) was actually Saturday. Gains tend to be peak on day 18 of this chart, or 4 days after the new moon.
PS -- March is the ancient "New Year" so Happy New Year!
|
moon phases |
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
slow majesty
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows
blather: nonsensical talk.
At times my analysis log, at times sharing what I've learned. Always my own work and views.
Content: amg
Basis: glish & bluerobot
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