:: actio-et-reactio ::
amg's market charts and blather
Hope this shortened week brought you bits of rest and fun. Seems the holidays are usually a mix of stress and gratitude (lol). As long as the gratitude wins out in the end, all the better!
I've started a new weekly chart for the next month. The old forks, and trendlines, went bust and what were "tentative" up-channels went In-Play. Loads of folks looking for a short term top, moi aussi. My targets:
::: 940-- old 8/98 low, which has served as support, becomes resistance;
::: 955-- actually, a string of hits when viewed on the daily chart (see prior post), suggesting more side-winding up ahead
::: 963-- cross over of larger "Blue" ML half-fork with "Grey" ML, and upper 13-week Bollinger Band
RSI on the weekly chart is clearly in a topping zone, but has not yet rolled. Daily RSI is coiling but not yet broken.
Stay safe & enjoy the ride!
Lest the smattering of readers who come here think I have turned Big Picture Bullish perish the thought. Seeing upside potential doesn't mean I'll buy a ticket.
Let me take a tangent. There is a joke among guru-watchers telling of the seer who puts out two scenarios, like the Elliott Wave practitioners, who have a Preferred Count and an Alternate Count. The joke is that for the seer, the tea leaves say "looks higher, could go lower". In other words, the seer is covering all the bases and rather than take a stand, is hedging so as not to be wrong.
There is some truth in that, after all, at the end of the day, the price is either higher or lower than it was yesterday. But there is also a bias, namely, that there is only one answer and that it is either right or wrong. But what if my view is only of the next hour? or of the next month? or year?
I'm not one for the grey-ing of issues, but there are some things that must be put into context. How you interpret information is a function of your own internal needs. The trigger is pulled only by you. Take inputs from those who tell *their* truth truthfully, but most importantly, pay attention to yourself, your own truth. If you're not sure what it is, enjoy the search as it is an ever changing one (grasshopper - hee hee hee).
And back on track. I'll stress that I like Median Lines because they reflect actio-reactio, balance, probabilities. Learning to think in probabilities and not absolutes is a good start to building a longer career trading the market.
To summarize the chart notes: There is price bullishness.
-- Two trendlines broken
-- Two signficant Median Lines breached to the upside (Red, Blue)
-- Two new "up" Median Lines created (Grey, Black)
-- Breadth indicators are bearishly divergent
-- Sentiment is overly bullish (contrarian)
-- Fundamentals are not robust (declining earnings, spending, credit risks)
Mr. Pitt's tenure was tenuous at best and in what to me was quite a market "bombshell", this evening tendered his resignation. He was quite the bulldog, hanging on tight amidst a steady partisan barrage and what appeared to be no one who would stand up for him.
No doubt this clears one uncertainty, but as the nature of the market is to keep that wall of worry strong, who replaces him (and perhaps even Wm Webster) are two fresh bricks.
Don't know about anyone else, but I'm finding it tough to DECIDE what to do...no matter what time frame. It's like walking in a mine field, what with "news event" noise so loud, with bullish desires so strong, and bearish needs too recently satiated. Times like this best to pull back a bit.
Here is one idea that I've been watching-- the convergence of those two bisects on the weekly chart. The bullish case is winning just now, but as I indicate, a reversal, even late in the week, would straddle that nexus and put a bit of mud on the bull horns. I'll be updating the chart at the end of each day, however may or may not add comments. Stay safe and keep good thoughts!
|
moon phases |
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
slow majesty
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows
blather: nonsensical talk.
At times my analysis log, at times sharing what I've learned. Always my own work and views.
Content: amg
Basis: glish & bluerobot
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