:: actio-et-reactio ::
amg's market charts and blather
But its the bears who have been schvitzin'!
Please click the "stockcharts.com" link on the right.
Climbing the wall of worry, which fuels short covering and discourages selling. Couple that with the jolly seasonal aspects, you get the rally. Today the overnight futures high from the Saddam capture got tagged, very tidy. The rebound has been a peppy one and may have a bit more to go. The 60m chart showing resistance, but the daily and weekly still show room to run to 1106.
So what about the trouble? (1) Big caps getting action (Chart 2a: OEX vs. SPX) (2) Small Cap Growth/Value ratio (Chart 2d) running in its channel (backed off the selling a bit) (4) the daily 'expando' was a continuation!! This week completes Options Expiration/Triple Witching, having burned a few bears in the process, and as commented, fading the momentum going into OE', ie, buying the dip proved to be the 'right' thing to do. Keep an open mind!
The move towards big caps out of small caps is a sign of 'liquidity safety', mildly bearish (esp. for small caps). Seasonal strength lends support, ie, the fear of the strong season may be what's keeping aggressive shorting at bay.
Reit: This may be part of a complex topping, but yet another rebound isn't out of the picture, albeit looking weak at this point. Please review the weekly and monthly charts, both indicate 'time is running out', ie, price has not yet accelerated within the forks and may moving out of them, most likely as a consolidation prior to the next move, be it up or down.
1 Nov: Bullish outcome targets 1050, 1065, and 1106 . 5 Dec: Note that 1068 is the All Time High to recent low 38%; 1089 targets the 78.6%. Keep in mind the 'handy' MACD rule of thumb: above zero bias long, below zero bias short, higher time frames control.
|
moon phases |
At last, over the rim
of the waiting earth
the moon lifted with
slow majesty
till it swung clear of the horizon and rode off,
free of moorings
- Kenneth Grahame,
The Wind in the Willows
blather: nonsensical talk.
At times my analysis log, at times sharing what I've learned. Always my own work and views.
Content: amg
Basis: glish & bluerobot
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